Global Scans · Recession · Weekly Summary

• [New] The rise in gold prices signals investors are anticipating rate cuts from the Fed later in 2024 but might be uncertain about the prospects of squashing inflation without throwing the US economy into recession, also known as a soft landing. CNN
• [New] In March, the ECB held rates steady at historically high levels, citing a delicate balance between recession fears and persistent inflation. E8 Funding Blog
• [New] While the latest jobs report supports the idea that the US economy is holding strong against interest rates at a 23-year high and could avoid a recession, it puts into question when the Federal Reserve will begin its long-awaited rate cuts. CNN
• Although the UK fell into a recession in the second half of last year, most economists are confident that growth will return in 2024 thanks to a stronger consumer. CityAM
• Despite the receding risk of a global recession, exacerbated by a robust U.S. economy, mounting geopolitical tensions and sluggish global trade pose fresh challenges. Global Trade Magazine
• The commodity-rich economy is growing at its slowest pace since the early 1990s, with some economists still seeing a heightened risk of a recession in 2024. MarketScreener
• There is an argument to be made that the Bank of Canada should be, and will, pay more attention to the Canadian weakness and be motivated to cut rates rather than be comfortable missing a recession relying on the strength in the U.S.. DNyuz
• Only 13% of respondents to Deutsche Bank's survey said they expect a U.S. recession in 2024, down from 59% just three months ago. Fortune
• A recession in the US and euro area in 2024 could significantly impact the ASEAN + 3 region, potentially halving its GDP growth. Fibre2Fashion
• Resilience in US growth limits global recession risks by supporting demand, particularly in Canada, Europe, and China, where growth remains weaker but closely tied to US activity. CA-EN
• Bond markets have slumped after a mixed batch of data on the US economy created uncertainty about when the Federal Reserve will announce a cut in interest rates. The Telegraph
• Investment sentiment remains positive, inflation is anticipated to continue to decline over the year, central banks have paused raising rates, and their next move is likely to cut, the US economy remains resilient, and the risk of US recession has faded. JMI Wealth
• On a positive note, Gross Domestic Product data released this week shows economic growth for January of 0.2% from the previous month, boosted by growth in the services sector, showing that the fleeting UK recession could be over already. Astute Private Wealth
• Fears of a recession took hold after a series of interest rate increases, stubborn inflation and geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East. The Conversation
• The US economy is growing faster than projected, driven largely by consumer spending and the Federal Reserve's successful efforts to get inflation under control without triggering a recession. Vox
• The US economy grew a faster-than-expected 3.3% in the fourth quarter, amid strong consumer spending, with growth for the full year coming in at 2.5%, shrugging off dire predictions of a recession after the Fed's aggressive rate hikes. Pusat Sumber KPT
• On the economic front, growth rates are anticipated to bottom out in western economies, potentially triggering headlines of recession, while growth continues to rise in Asia. LBMA
• A slump in U.S. refining activity and disruptions to global trade have tightened diesel supplies in recent weeks, dampening historically high U.S. diesel exports to Europe this month. TradingView
• U.S. growth has now topped 2% for six straight quarters, defying fears that high interest rates would tip the world's largest economy into a recession. The Washington Post
• Another consideration is that most commentary on the US economy has become notably less negative of late as previously widespread fears of recession have faded. ILCU
• A rate cut going forward to insulate the US economy from plunging into an economic downturn or recession. Republic World
• The economic unit says: Despite entering into a technical recession in 2023, falling inflation and energy prices, alongside expected interest rate cuts, mean UK gross domestic product is expected to rise 0.9% year, with further growth of 1.8% in 2025 and 2% in 2026 predicted. Mortgage Strategy

Last updated: 24 April 2024