Global Scans · Conflict · Weekly Summary

---

WHAT'S NEXT?: Rising tensions around are bringing new and regional geopolitical threats and the possibility of eventual global war. Keep abreast of the unfolding drama and know where the risks and opportunities are in the world.

• [New] After the terror attacks in Paris many people fear that a wave of terrorism will sweep over Europe and the US. DW.COM
• [New] Russia is likely to continue limited chemical weapons use in Europe over the next decade to sow fear and fracture NATO unity, though large-scale biological or nuclear attacks remain unlikely. Global Biodefense
• [New] Trump said he had instructed the Pentagon to immediately resume nuclear weapons testing on an equal basis with other countries like Russia and China, whose nuclear weapons arsenal will match the US in five years. Al Jazeera
• [New] In a major conflict, Japan's modern and powerful military would be expected to deny the Chinese navy access to the Miyako Strait and other waterways further north. gCaptain
• [New] Military planners in Manila and Washington anticipate that China might attempt to attack or seize Batanes if it went to war over Taiwan. gCaptain
• [New] The race to produce America's first operational autonomous fighter drones is accelerating as the Pentagon prepares for potential conflict in the Pacific, where autonomous systems could provide critical advantages against sophisticated air defences. DroneXL.co
• [New] Moscow has hinted that it might use nuclear weapons in Ukraine and introduced a doctrine in November that made the grounds for potentially using them broader and more explicit. DebateUS
• [New] China's growing stockpile of nuclear weapons is expected to triple by 2035. DebateUS
• [New] China will for the first time have survivable (mobile) theater nuclear forces capable of conducting low-yield precision strikes on U.S. and allied forces and infrastructure across East Asia, in contrast to its historic practice of fielding only larger yield weapons. The Heritage Foundation
• [New] North Korea regularly threatens to incinerate American and allied cities with nuclear weapons. The Heritage Foundation
• [New] China is interested in placing nuclear weapons on fractional orbital bombardment systems - which are orbital platforms that could send nuclear warheads onto terrestrial targets with little to no tactical warning. The Heritage Foundation
• [New] The Russo-Ukrainian war and instability in the Middle East have underscored the vulnerability of China's oil and gas transit routes to geopolitical conflict and external interference. Forbes
• [New] Leaders will tackle issues ranging from US-China trade friction to border conflicts and Myanmar's civil war. The Business Standard
• [New] A series of three CSIS games from recent years took a holistic look at various Taiwan conflict scenarios, and all predicted the USA could still prevail against China - but at a decidedly high cost in casualties and equipment losses. Flight Global
• [New] Hypersonic missiles, in conjunction with other weapons such as F-35 stealth fighters, stealth drones, Taurus air-launched cruise missiles, and Hyunmoo family of ballistic missiles, could pre-empt a North Korean attack or even decapitate its leadership. Asia Times
• [New] Should North Korea arm its hypersonic weapons with nuclear warheads, which it may most likely do, that move could be considered a further evolution of its nuclear arsenal. Asia Times
• [New] PURL participants plan to contribute $1 billion monthly for US weapons procurement for Ukraine. Presage Global
• [New] Saudi Arabia's evolving strategy focuses on conflict containment and border stability through PLC funding, mediation among southern leaders, and direct negotiations with the Houthis to safeguard cross-border infrastructure and curb missile threats. GeopoliticsUnplugged Substack
• [New] Turkey has said it could develop nuclear weapons in what some fear could become an arms race across the Middle East. DebateUS
• The Kremlin notably has not offered any assurances that Russia will refrain from escalating its war in Ukraine even if the United States were to refrain from provisioning Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles. Critical Threats
• ISW has observed the well-demonstrated pattern that Russia escalates its war in Ukraine as soon as it develops new weapons systems and tactics that Russia assesses will help its war effort. Critical Threats

Last updated: 04 November 2025