Global Scans · Conflict · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Rising tensions around are bringing new and regional geopolitical threats and the possibility of eventual global war. Keep abreast of the unfolding drama and know where the risks and opportunities are in the world.

• [New] Strategic ambiguity, escalation dynamics and resilient Iranian responses point to a protracted conflict with regional spillovers, infrastructure targeting and rising global economic risks, with no clear end-state. Al Jazeera Centre for Studies
• [New] With the war in the Middle East now gradually shifting from a pure energy price shock towards an energy supply and broader supply chain shock, the German economy is once again at the center of an exogenous, global, disruption. investing.com
• [New] Israel's ongoing conflict dynamics in the broader Middle East are further amplifying instability, increasing the probability of disruptions to oil supply chains. Kalkine
• [New] The war in Iran has highlighted a global vulnerability: a reliance on energy and other products that can become caught behind maritime chokepoints. ArcticToday
• [New] The probability Iran will have a nuclear weapon within 10 years is much greater today than it was just a year ago. Harvard Gazette
• [New] The war in Iraq, designed to defeat terrorism, has not only resulted in extensive terrorism and sectarian violence in Iraq, including attracting a branch of al-Qaeda, but has also created opportunities for Iran. Elcano Royal Institute
• [New] The Iran war, now in its eighth week, has injected a large degree of uncertainty about how it will affect the U.S. and global economies even as Iran and the U.S. remain under a ceasefire agreement. WPLG
• [New] In Q1 2026, the US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz blockade triggered the largest oil disruption in history, driving diesel to $5.45 per gallon - a nearly 50% jump from 2025. EZ-CRETE
• [New] The war involving the United States and Israel against Iran is benefiting Brazil and other energy-exporting countries in the Western Hemisphere through higher global prices, but it will also push up inflation. valorinternational
• [New] If the Middle East conflict were to become protracted and persist for more than two quarters, the Bank of Canada would likely become more inclined to hike rates, as headline inflation could rise by roughly 75 basis points and core inflation by about 30 basis points. Daily Hive
• [New] The strategic deployment of directed energy weapons on orbital platforms represents a transformative opportunity for global missile defence and satellite protection capabilities. Persistence Market Research
• [New] Conflict and instability could prompt as many as 20 countries to pursue a bomb. Electricity Info
• [New] In a sign of things to come, since the start of the Iran war, the 10-year Treasury bond yield has risen even at a time when one would have expected it to decline on increased safe-haven demand. American Enterprise Institute - AEI
• [New] While the automotive and metals sectors have been a source of tension in the US-Mexico trade relationship, they offer opportunities to strengthen North American competitiveness and industrial leadership through the 2026 review. Atlantic Council
• [New] The war in the Middle East has triggered a new energy disruption that is now testing Asia's economic resilience. Vietstock
• [New] Once geopolitical tensions ignite, they do not remain contained, and what we are now witnessing is the steady expansion of conflict lines as Turkey is being recast from a strategic NATO partner into a geopolitical threat by the very alliance it once helped anchor. Armstrong Economics
• [New] Transit fell to a mere fraction of the pre-war average of 100 ships per day, triggering the world's largest-ever fuel supply disruption. Ronin's Grips Analytics
• [New] Trump's approval rating could always recover, the war in Iran could end cleanly, and gas prices can fall. Strength In Numbers
• [New] The Trump administration's spending plan for 2027 allocates more than $70 billion for military drones and counter-drone weapon systems. DefenseScoop
• [New] A more drawn-out conflict in the Middle East could see inflation spike by as much as 5.6%. The Daily Star
• [New] Growth predictions could fall to as low as 4.7% for 2026 and 4.8% in 2027 should the US-Israeli war with Iran drag into the third quarter. The Daily Star
• [New] The Middle East war is expected to drag on Asia's economies over this year and next. The Daily Star

Last updated: 28 April 2026