Global Scans · Conflict · Weekly Summary

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WHAT'S NEXT?: Rising tensions around are bringing new and regional geopolitical threats and the possibility of eventual global war. Keep abreast of the unfolding drama and know where the risks and opportunities are in the world.

• [New] Brent's oil rose to $81.40 per barrel, driven by growing tensions in the Middle East and fears of disruptions to global energy supplies. Lupicinio
• [New] The US economy is expected to slow further in the second half of the year, pressured by tight financial conditions, increasing delinquency rates, and rising inflation risk amid ongoing trade policy uncertainty and escalating conflict in the Middle East. Krungsri2020
• [New] The French doctrine features a steep escalation curve, which can lead to a credibility deficit in the eyes of European allies, leaving them uncertain about France's willingness to employ nuclear weapons in their defence without risking full nuclear escalation. DebateUS
• [New] Russia's ongoing efforts to expand drone production are having a more immediate impact on the frontline in Ukraine, although Russia will continue to benefit from enhanced drone production capabilities during any future conflict. Institute for the Study of War
• [New] The United States' decision to militarily intervene in Iran will likely influence PRC perceptions about the United States' willingness to involve itself in foreign conflicts under President Donald Trump. Institute for the Study of War
• [New] The world risks a new Cold War-like scenario, or worse, a multi-front nuclear standoff involving: Iran and Israel in West Asia, Russia and NATO in Europe, China-U.S. tensions in the Indo-Pacific, Indo-Pakistan nuclear risks in South Asia. kp ias academy
• [New] The Russia-Ukraine war's main geostrategic effect has been to weaken relationships between Europe and Russia and, to a lesser extent, between Europe and China, while providing an opportunity to strengthen the relationships between the United States and its European allies. Rand Corporation
• [New] Geopolitical Tensions: Recent conflicts, like the 2025 Israel-Iran clash, and strategic rivalries among major powers heighten the risk of space-based escalation. SSBCrack News
• [New] Risks to the economic outlook include elevated policy uncertainty, tighter global financial conditions, and potential trade tensions, although there are opportunities for stronger growth through fiscal support and digital investment. Scribd
• [New] Investors are now increasingly wary, viewing stocks, bonds, and currencies as susceptible to disruptions stemming from geopolitical tensions, particularly the precarious ceasefire between Israel and Iran, fluctuating oil prices, and uncertainties surrounding trade relations with China and Europe. The Munich Eye
• [New] Assumption for the price of Dubai crude oil for 2025 was narrowed to $60 to $70 per barrel from the $60 to $80 range amid easing global demand and expected increases in global oil inventories despite escalating geopolitical tensions. philstar.com
• [New] Following a recent easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, financial markets have entered a notably constructive phase, one that could pave the way for renewed momentum across risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. cryptonews
• [New] A nuclear Iran is a threat to the United States, Israel, and the entire world, which is why we must ensure they can never acquire or develop a nuclear weapon. Jacky Rosen
• [New] Iran fired hundreds of ballistic missiles against Israel following an unprecedented direct attack on its nuclear facilities, ramping up a conflict between sworn enemies that threatens to engulf the Middle East and disrupt global oil supplies. Las Vegas Review-Journal
• [New] The Iran-Israel war will have major geopolitical reverberations that will be felt for years throughout the world, including South Asia, particularly India and Pakistan - both of which have nuclear weapons. The Diplomat
• [New] Israel removed two existential threats - the threat of destruction via nuclear weapons and the threat of destruction via 20,000 ballistic missiles that Iran was moving to build. Counter Extremism Project
• [New] As the United States faces possible retaliatory attacks from Iran, a brain drain in top Justice Department and FBI national security and counterterrorism units could reduce their ability to prevent potential terror and cyberattacks from Tehran. Counter Extremism Project
• [New] Gaza talks gain new momentum after Israel-Iran war The end of the war between Israel and Iran has given rise to new hopes for a quick second ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. Rapture Ready
• Tensions soared in the Middle East earlier this month when Israel unexpectedly attacked Iran over fears it was developing nuclear weapons - a claim Iran has denied, insisting that it is only for peaceful purposes. HuffPost UK

Last updated: 01 July 2025