Global Scans · Conflict · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Rising tensions around are bringing new and regional geopolitical threats and the possibility of eventual global war. Keep abreast of the unfolding drama and know where the risks and opportunities are in the world.

• [New] While most of Asia is being hit hard, China will likely benefit from war-related fossil fuel disruptions despite being the biggest purchaser of Iranian oil. KSTP.com 5 Eyewitness News
• [New] A protracted and more intense conflict in the Middle East remains a key downside risk, with the potential to severely disrupt global energy and fertilizer supply that can push energy and food prices much higher and dampen regional growth more substantially. ALBANIA DAILY NEWS
• [New] Several carriers have already announced emergency or war risk surcharges, and further rate increases are expected due to cascading effects across global routes. International shipping and transporting company | Asstr
• [New] Ongoing conflict involving Iran has increased volatility in global fertilizer markets, particularly nitrogen supplies, as countries exposed to disruptions in and around the Persian Gulf account for roughly 49% of global urea exports and about 30% of ammonia exports. American Farm Bureau Federation
• [New] The war in Iran could exacerbate all three. EconomicGreenfield
• [New] The ongoing war in the Middle East will have significant global ramifications, particularly affecting oil logistics and prices. Crypto Briefing
• [New] There is a 75% chance that Trump will escalate the conflict with Iran to stage three. Crypto Briefing
• [New] Bear in mind the conflict in the Middle East has altered the outlook for interest rates, posing risks to the rate-sensitive real estate sector. ST
• [New] Disruptions to energy supplies stemming from conflict in the Middle East are expected to drive an increase in headline inflation. KPMG
• [New] As long as war-related risks continue to trigger intermittent airport closures and rerouting, the likelihood of mass disruptions at Russian aviation hubs will remain elevated, and both airlines and passengers will need to plan with substantially wider margins for delay. The Traveler
• [New] Threatening Iran with genocide is a war crime. The Sydney Morning Herald
• [New] France has come out against Trump, warning that attacking civilian infrastructure is a violation of international law and the rules of war. Armstrong Economics
• [New] Higher energy costs and lesser outward investment by the Gulf countries in the wake of the Iran war could cause a cooling of investment in Artificial Intelligence. American Enterprise Institute - AEI
• [New] The need for increased defence spending in the wake of the Iran war threatens to exacerbate an already troubling budget situation, as underlined by Trump's proposal to increase defence spending by $500 billion. American Enterprise Institute - AEI
• [New] The fragile two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran is a welcome break from mounting hostilities, even though tension between Israel and Lebanon threatens to derail negotiations. Chemistry World
• [New] The logic of escalation is inexorable: intensified bombing, the invasion of Iran with ground troops, the occupation or destruction of major cities, and, in the face of mounting US casualties, the resort to nuclear weapons, the hell which Trump constantly threatens against the Iranian people. World Socialist Web Site
• [New] The 35% odds on 5% + inflation represent the tail risk scenario - one where the Iran conflict reignites, oil retests $114+ per barrel, and the energy shock compounds into a broader price spiral. AOL
• [New] With the conflict involving Iran raising concerns about supply disruptions, global markets are reacting quickly, and agriculture is directly in the firing line. African farming
• [New] The Middle East conflict is a direct catalyst, acting as a persistent source of volatility and a fundamental re-pricing of risk. Ainvest
• [New] The EES comes into effect amid the news that Europe is weeks away from a jet fuel shortage, as a result of the conflict in Iran, which would trigger further disruptions to airports and airlines. Yahoo News Canada
• The Strait of Hormuz has become almost impassable, especially with the increased conflict between Iran and the US, posing a high risk of missile strikes and hybrid attacks during kinetic and non-kinetic vessels' operations. All About Shipping
• The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has turned the Strait of Hormuz into more than a maritime chokepoint: it is now a live test of how quickly kinetic conflict can expose operational technology and cyber vulnerabilities across shipping, ports, terminals and energy-linked maritime infrastructure. All About Shipping

Last updated: 14 April 2026