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Conflict

WHAT'S NEXT?: Rising tensions around are bringing new and regional geopolitical threats and the possibility of eventual global war. Keep abreast of the unfolding drama and know where the risks and opportunities are in the world.

[New] The United States will need to have tough conversations with Taiwan about the need for it to invest more in its own defense and to increase its military preparedness.
[New] International terrorism from groups such as the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and Al Qaeda present a threat from many others.
[New] The use of chemical weapons in Syria and Iraq by Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL / Da' esh) and the proliferation of missiles and components to non-State actors in the Middle East are some of the recent reminders of the risks involved.
[New] Weeks of renewed frontline clashes have raised fears of an escalation of the long-simmering conflict in eastern Ukraine, where Kiev's forces are battling pro-Russian separatists.
[New] An arms race, even over an ineffective weapon, increases international tensions and could make conflict among China, Russia, and the United States more likely.
[New] Abdel Fattah el-Sisi' s brutal rise to power in Egypt coincided with the increased activity of militant groups in the Sinai peninsula, marking another example of the crisis factory and the way tyrants need the threat of terrorism to reinforce their shaky legitimacy.
[New] The Pentagon's informally adopted 2+ 3 framework for GPC - which grades China and Russia as primary threats while framing North Korea, Iran, and terrorism as secondary threats - has the potential to over - simplify the most complex challenges faced by the United States.
[New] The expiration of the arms embargo has freed Iran's hands and allows it to deliver shiploads of weapons to its militia groups without fear of being exposed and stopped.
[New] The risk is that the process of decoupling from China will not be slow and wary but will accelerate, creating a chain reaction, as businesses respond to geopolitical tensions by scaling back their own exposures.
[New] The US makes no iron-clad guarantees it will come to Taiwan's defense if China makes good on threats to invade, only agreeing to help the separately ruled economy maintain its capacity for self-defense.
[New] Russia was the most active in testing anti-satellite weapons over the past year, including tests of a space-based weapon that appears to be capable of firing projectiles at other satellites, said the Space Threat Assessment.
[New] As China engages in international disputes ranging from fist fights with Taiwanese officials to trade sanctions and threats of conflict, the belligerent and aggressive style of communication of some of its foreign officials has earned the nickname wolf warrior diplomacy.
[New] A significant rise in tensions between Russia and Ukraine in recent weeks is prompting fears of a revival of the military conflict.
[New] All in all, China's tensions with a host of countries are not likely to reduce in the short term, which means geopolitical risk will remain a key risk to watch for firms that operate in China or depend on the Chinese economy in other ways.
[New] Where Taipei once enjoyed certain advantages in the event of a military conflict, including technological superiority and the benefits of island defense, many military analysts now conclude that China could take Taiwan by force, and that the United States would be hard-pressed to stop it.
[New] In light of an ongoing trade war between China and the United States, geo-political instability in the Asia-Pacific region and the recent EU controls on vaccine production, Australian firms need to be prepared for a higher degree of vulnerability in their supply chains.
[New] While a conventional cruise missile attack alone would likely not disarm or decapitate Russia, that nation's decision-makers might fear that cruise missiles could be used in conjunction with American nuclear weapons.
[New] In 2021 we should demand thought leadership around more sophisticated and intersectional threat assessments, risk analysis, and gender analysis that is fit for purpose to deal with the intersection of gender, climate, and conflict.
[New] The ensuing arena of competing powers and interests has undermined decades of Yemeni central governance leading to a worrisome fragmentation and to an ongoing armed conflict and refugee crisis that threatens to undermine the global economy.
[New] As the contest between America and China intensifies, there is a growing threat of embargoes, or even military conflict.

Last updated: 06 April 2021

Conflict

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