Global Scans · Trade · Weekly Summary

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WHAT'S NEXT?: Global trade policies could be upended with a new President in the White House, Brexit, a potential break-up of the European Union and China reacting to these changes in profound ways.

• [New] Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy welcomed the threat of enhanced US sanctions and tariffs on nations purchasing Russian oil, while cautioning that Russia would only make serious moves towards peace if it began to run out of money. Caliber.az
• [New] Failure to take concrete steps toward peace could trigger severe sanctions against Russia, including secondary sanctions targeting entities that continue to trade with Moscow. Caliber.az
• [New] Shifts in trade networks, evolving patterns in capital flows, the rise of digital innovation, and the risk of increasing geoeconomic fragmentation are reshaping the global landscape of trade and financial integration. SpringerLink
• [New] Both nations will need to navigate immigration issues and ongoing trade disputes, particularly concerning Mexico's state-owned energy policies, which have faced challenges under the USMCA. Passle
• [New] Any protectionist measures or economic downturns in the US could have significant repercussions for Mexico's export-driven economy. Passle
• [New] Boston Consulting Group raised concerns last year about geopolitical risks at three of the choke points to be studied by FMC - the Suez Canal, the Strait of Malacca and the Panama Canal - as well as the Strait of Hormuz that threaten global trade. Transport Solutions LLC
• [New] Bitcoin will reach $150,000 by the end of 2025, citing regulatory optimism despite trade tariff concerns. TodayOnChain
• [New] Persistent inflation, especially high food prices, and the lingering impact of tariffs will continue to erode purchasing power, while monetary policy uncertainty, exacerbated by the government shutdown hindering data availability, will keep the Federal Reserve in a precarious position. FinancialContent
• [New] Global supply chains, already strained by tariff discussions, could face further disruptions as businesses re-evaluate sourcing and cost structures. FinancialContent
• [New] Internationally, the erosion of US financial exceptionalism is anticipated to result in lower volumes of international trade, reduced capital flows, and slower growth in global productivity and living standards. FinancialContent
• [New] The Panama Canal expects an increase in transits of liquefied petroleum gas vessels and carriers of some agricultural commodities to help it compensate for a reduction in world trade in 2026. TradingView
• [New] Trade volume for derivatives alone on DEXs is expected to reach $3.48 trillion. Why Crypto Swaps Are Replacing Traditional Exchanges -
• [New] Even with all the tariffs and threats this year, China's export engine has stayed remarkably strong - partially due to countries front-loading imports earlier this year before tariffs took effect. BlackRock
• [New] The effective U.S. tariff rate will land around 13-14% at the high end. Clear Financial Group
• [New] Sanctions on Russian metals, China's dominance in primary aluminium production, trade tariffs, Europe's energy crisis, and the economic slowdown are all reshaping supply chains in ways that could lead to unpredictable price swings. alcircle
• [New] Both Malaysia and Cambodia agreed to consult with the U.S. before entering new digital trade agreements that might jeopardize American interests, a clause that raised eyebrows and speculation, especially with the European Union building its own trade links in Southeast Asia. Grand Pinnacle Tribune
• [New] The Chinese Yuan: Already included in the IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket, the yuan's influence will likely expand as China continues internationalizing its currency through trade settlements and financial partnerships. TradingView
• [New] Canada's long-standing softwood lumber dispute with the United States has worsened as U.S. tariffs and duties reached 45% earlier this month and could potentially be hit by an additional 10% tariff if U.S. President Donald Trump follows through on his recent announcement. BNN Bloomberg
• [New] Beijing will suspend implementation of export controls on rare-earth materials, issue licenses for exports of rare earths and other materials to the benefit of the U.S., and take measures to stem the flow of fentanyl. Successful Farming
• [New] China is expected to delay its rare earth licensing regime and resume US soybean purchases, signaling improving trade relations. The Times Of India
• [New] In an uncertain macroeconomic environment, episodes of volatility in the Hungarian forint cannot be ruled out and could therefore exert upward pressure on inflation through imported inflation. economic-research.bnpparibas.com
• [New] After the strong rise in exports early in the year ahead of expected US tariff increases, German goods exports - especially to the United States - have recently lost momentum as global trade has slowed. BMWI

Last updated: 06 November 2025