Global Scans · Trade · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Global trade policies could be upended with a new President in the White House, Brexit, a potential break-up of the European Union and China reacting to these changes in profound ways.

• [New] The US tariff threat affects a subset of EU countries only, which is unusual as the EU negotiates trade agreements collectively. ABN AMRO Bank
• [New] The first farm in Abu Dhabi is expected to produce over 4.5 million pounds of premium strawberries annually for local consumption and export to Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Market Data Forecast
• [New] The European Union, under its REPowerEU plan, aims to produce 10 Mt of renewable hydrogen domestically by 2030 and import another 10 Mt, as stated by the European Commission. Precedence Research
• [New] Through Vision 2030 and its Hydrogen Strategy, Saudi Arabia aims to capture over 10% of the global hydrogen trade by the mid-2030s. Precedence Research
• [New] Large-scale electrolysis-based renewable hydrogen is set to become the dominant sub-segment by the 2030s, as green supply certification, cross-border import routes, and auction systems continue to evolve. Precedence Research
• [New] Tariffs and trade policy will remain headline risks through at least mid-2026, keeping pricing pressure elevated as tariff-free inventory dwindles. BMO
• [New] Looming tariffs, reportedly up to 200%, on U.S. pharmaceutical imports could drive up costs and affect international trade dynamics. BUSINESS 2.0 NEWS
• [New] While the global trade environment remains complex, it is creating opportunities for innovation and stronger long term supply chain design. Global Trade Magazine
• [New] Most other advanced economies, like the euro area and the United Kingdom, are net energy importers, so higher energy prices will worsen their terms of trade and reduce national incomes. Reserve Bank of Australia
• [New] The ongoing AI investment boom, the structural rise in China's manufacturing capacity (particularly in higher value-added products like vehicles, ships and semiconductors), and the recent substantive decline in the US tariff rate are all expected to support continued strength in exports. Reserve Bank of Australia
• [New] Europe's continued exposure to global oil and gas markets, despite progress since the Russian war, has once again demonstrated the strategic risks of imported energy. Example Inc.
• [New] El Nino-related disruptions to global oilseed supply chains (palm oil, Indian oilseeds) represent the most significant upside price catalyst available, and one that could partially offset the trade headwind for soybean oil in particular. Center for Commercial Agriculture
• [New] Perhaps the most durable consequence of the 2025 trade disruption is the acceleration of Brazil's position as the dominant supplier of soybeans to China. Center for Commercial Agriculture
• [New] Amid ongoing Canada-U.S. trade talks, 88% of Canadian business leaders say that the greatest risk to their company would be to lose their current protections under the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, finds a new KPMG survey. KPMG
• [New] Customs risks are increasing because global trade has become more fragmented due to geopolitical tensions, changing tariffs, export controls, sanctions, supplier relocation, and stricter digital enforcement. German Compliance Institute
• [New] Beyond the US's tariffs, the broader trade landscape is being shaped by a complex mix of geopolitical tensions, shifting monetary policy, and the risks of the AI bubble bursting. Octet
• [New] The Trade Diversification Corridors Fund will support projects that enhance Canada's trade-enabling transportation infrastructure, including ports, railways, roads, and other logistics networks. Arctic Portal - The Arctic Gateway
• [New] The Super Micro Computer (SMCI) supply chain disruption is real - a $1.4 billion order covering 300-400 racks was cancelled following DOJ export indictments, which directly impairs Oracle's ability to deliver liquid-cooled AI clusters on schedule. investing.com
• [New] One major impact has been the disruption to routes passing through the Suez Canal, a critical artery linking Asia and Europe, which typically handles about 12% of global trade. CNA
• [New] The expansion of China's zero-tariff regime could increase African agricultural exports, which will help to elevate rural incomes, improve rural productivity, and ultimately to reduce hunger and poverty. BBC News
• [New] The EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism, which begins covering hydrogen and hydrogen-derived products, will penalize high-carbon blue hydrogen imported into Europe. Green Fuel Journal
• [New] There is recurrent potential for a win-win where Europe advances development through promoting the diffusion of cheaper green technology by opening itself up and making its standards accessible, as well as limiting some of its nationalist trade and investment policies. InterEconomics
• [New] China's 205,000-tonne tariff-free safeguard quota is expected to be filled by mid-year, leading to a sharp slowdown in exports in H2. Westpac IQ

Last updated: 07 May 2026