Argentina

• [New] Latin America faces the deepest recession in 2021 (despite an 1.3 ppt upward revision vs June), dragged down by Peru, Argentina, Ecuador and Mexico although fiscal stimulus will contain Brazil's contraction.
• [New] Ganfeng's 51 %-owned Cauchari-Olaroz lithium salt lake project in Argentina, slated to produce 40,000 tonnes per year of lithium carbonate, is planned to be put into production in the first half of 2022.
• The International Grains Council expects 2020/21 world soybean production to be 361 million tons, up 1 million on the month with increases for Brazil and India cancelling out a decrease for Argentina.
• New PPP-based projects can be expected in countries like Mexico, Bolivia, Argentina, Colombia, Peru, and Brazil.
• Brazil and Argentina will need to finish their crops with no major problems, and the U.S. planting and growing seasons must go smoothly.
• Global soybean crush is forecast up 1.6 million tons to 323.6 million as higher crush for Argentina and Brazil is partly offset by lower crush for China.
• The growth-corrected interest rate, the differential between interest and nominal growth rates, will be -3.6% in India, -6.5% in China and -33.8% in Argentina.
• With continued competition from Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine, together with growing domestic feed use and stable corn use for ethanol, the U.S. market share of global corn exports is projected to remain relatively flat at about 31% during the projection period.
• Emerging market debt will increase from 52% of GDP in 2019 to 64% in 2021, with the mining markets of Brazil, Argentina, India, Mexico and South Africa in the most vulnerable category.
• Argentina, Brazil, and the United States are projected to remain the major soybean meal exporters.
• The presidents of Peru and Argentina hope to get the scandals behind them and rebuild citizens' trust.
• Near-term, parts of Brazil will see more harvest delaying rain, while other areas of Brazil and parts of Argentina are expected to see a drier pattern.
• In response to a weak peso and increasing world crush demand for soybeans, Argentina's soybean exports are projected to increase about 34.0% to 10.9 million tons by 2030/31, mostly to China.
• The three leading soybean exporters - the United States, Brazil, and Argentina - are projected to account for nearly 90% of world soybean trade by 2030/31.
• Exports from South America - primarily Argentina, Brazil, Guyana, Paraguay, and Uruguay - are projected to expand 8.5% over the next decade, accounting for 7.3% of global trade.
• The eight largest wheat exporters - the EU, Russia, Canada, the United States, Ukraine, Australia, Argentina, and Kazakhstan - are projected to account for 91.0% of world trade in 2030/31.
• Argentina is projected to become the world's second-largest sorghum exporter by 2020/21, displacing Australia, with exports reaching 500,000 tons per year.
• China, South Korea, and the Middle East region account for the largest shares of projected gains in beef import demand, with major exporters Brazil, Argentina, and India supplying most of the increased demand.
• World soybean imports increase by 26.7% between 2021/22 and 2031/31, with China accounting for about 79% of the projected increase, and Brazil meeting about 70% of the increased demand, followed by the United States, Other South America, and Argentina.
• With a large projected increase in soybean imports, China joins major soybean producers Brazil, the United States, Argentina, and India in accounting for most of the expected increase in global soybean crush, and in soybean meal and soybean oil production.
• Global soybean production is projected to increase by 21.4% over the projection period, with Brazil, the United States, and Argentina supplying about 84% of expected growth.
• The European Union and Ukraine supply more than 60.0% of the projected increase in import demand, followed by Canada, Australia, Argentina, and Russia.

Last updated: 08 April 2021