Global Scans · Brazil · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: A recession in Brazil is expected to bottom out with growth turning positive starting in 2017. Its economy is expected to require a long period of fiscal and monetary adjustment after the political turmoil and public discontent of the last two years.

• [New] We expect China to continue gaining share, especially because of persistent trade frictions between Beijing and Washington, which favor alternative suppliers such as Brazil. valorinternational
• [New] For the first time in the history of Brazilian foreign trade, in 2026 two products, soybeans and crude oil, could each exceed $50 billion in exports and will be competing with each other to become Brazil's largest export, a position that should go to oil. valorinternational
• [New] Brazil's trade surplus is expected to exceed last year's result in 2026, providing a stronger contribution from the external sector. valorinternational
• [New] The Brazilian meteorological agency has released a forecast that the unusually strong El Nino will delay the onset of the Amazonian rainy season, raise temperatures, deplete rivers and intensify fire risks. The Guardian
• [New] El Nino will impact Brazilian cattle farming by causing heat stress in animals, reducing pasture quality, and leading to 'water scarcity'. The Guardian
• [New] Brazil is aiming for zero deforestation by 2030, a target that campaigners increasingly believe is within reach. Positive News
• [New] Brazil has not yet decided whether it will proceed with retaliatory measures, but has committed to defending its position. Al Jazeera
• [New] Brazil is forecast to post 17.2% CAGR as manufacturers and service providers expand digital operations. FactMr
• [New] A concerted effort will be made to electrify the South Korean, U.S., Chinese, and European markets by 2030; developing markets like India and Brazil will have 2035 as the equivalent target. Hyundai Motor Group
• [New] Brazil Hit with New Tariffs - A new 25% U.S. tariff will hit a range of Brazilian goods, including farm machinery, wood products, ethanol, and apparel. ICR
• [New] SAF will be produced from both traditional feedstocks such as soybean oil, tallow and used cooking oil, as well as macauba, a native Brazilian crop. GreenAir News
• [New] Brazil's Pix processed 6 billion monthly transactions in 2025, with projections that 58% of e-commerce spend will use Pix within five years. Innovative AI Solutions
• More supply was rising outside OPEC and American shale: Brazil's offshore fields, Guyana's expanding projects and Argentina's Vaca Muerta were expected to provide roughly half of the projected 800,000-barrel-a-day increase in global crude production in 2026. www.feedlotmagazine.com
• Abiove expects Brazil to export a record 113.6 million metric tons of soybeans in 2026, while the Rosario Board of Trade projected Argentina's 2025/26 grain harvest at a record 158 million tonnes. The Rio Times
• The U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on certain imports from Brazil following a Section 301 investigation that found Brazil's trading practices to be unfair to American producers. Corn Refiners Association
• Brazil's position in South America, separated by the expansive Atlantic Ocean from the primary theaters of potential conflict in Europe and Asia, substantially reduces the risks of direct invasion or aerial bombardment from distant powers. Grokipedia
• Services remain Brazil's main growth engine, supported by resilient domestic demand ... ... But persistent inflation and softer surveys suggest services growth will moderate further. Pantheon Macroeconomics
• Passenger vehicle sales will remain the main growth driver, with sales expected to rise 8.5% y-o-y to 2.2 mn units, while EV sales are forecast to increase 37.1% y-o-y and lift EV penetration to 11.4% in 2026. / Brazil Fitch Solutions
• If ReData is enacted with limited dilution, it could materially accelerate the conversion of the 1.8 GW-plus pipeline into committed builds and strengthen Brazil's position against regional peers such as Chile and Mexico. Fitch Solutions
• Brazil is likely to consolidate its lead in Latin American data centers through 2027-2030, supported by hyperscaler-led AI demand, deep renewable power availability and the scale of Sao Paulo/Rio de Janeiro capacity pipelines. Fitch Solutions
• Brazil's main AI opportunity lies in scaling practical, sector-specific deployment despite institutional bottlenecks. Fitch Solutions
• Brazil's overall infrastructure investment is projected at R$ 300 billion in 2026, with a pipeline of 580 tenders worth R$ 780 billion. The Rio Times

Last updated: 25 August 2026