Global Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

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WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] A large-scale assault on NATO could be conceivable by 2029 if Russia's rearmament continues. Medium
• [New] A faster-than-expected run-off would narrow Russia's room for manoeuver in any new crisis. Medium
• [New] Russia is preparing to unleash a 'big war' on Europe in 2029 or 2030. Metro
• [New] Experts are not worried about an overnight calamity if there is no form of an agreed to cap, but it would be the first time in decades the US and Russia could deploy long-range nuclear weapons without restraint. CNN
• [New] US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin have spent weeks trading threats to restart nuclear tests, an escalation kicked off by Putin's boasts about tests of the Poseidon nuclear powered missile in late October. CNN
• [New] Russia will make about 70,000 long-range drones in 2025, including 30,000 Shahed-type drones. Critical Threats
• [New] With enough funding it can produce up to 20 million drones in 2026 to use against Russian forces that have invaded. SOF News
• [New] Russia has begun deploying long-range, jam-resistant fiber-optic drones with a reach of up to 50 kilometers, posing a growing threat to Ukraine's logistics. UNITED24 Media
• [New] The inability of Russian small group infiltration tactics to generate sufficient mass to clear Ukrainian forces within Pokrovsk presently will likely force Russian forces to resort to using vehicles during inclement weather conditions to transport large numbers of troops into Pokrovsk. Critical Threats
• [New] A dramatically expanded Ukrainian BAI effort could disrupt the operations of the current Russian offensive approach. Critical Threats
• [New] Russian forces used weather conditions to exploit vulnerabilities in Ukraine's drone-based battlefield defences in the Novopavlivka direction, highlighting Ukraine's need for traditional weapons systems. Critical Threats
• [New] Lavrov stressed that the Kremlin views with concern some debates in the United States about possible military aid packages that would expand the range and lethality of Ukrainian capabilities, including the delivery of systems that could strike deeper into Russian territory. Atalayar
• [New] Moscow hopes Washington will not take steps that would escalate the conflict in Ukraine, insisting that Russia is willing to talk, but on the basis of 'the realities on the ground'. Atalayar
• [New] The temporary suspension of Russian crude purchases by Chinese state oil companies highlighted vulnerability concerns and the importance of flexible supply arrangements. Discovery Alert
• [New] Putin has previously warned the U.S. and other NATO allies that allowing Ukraine to use Western-supplied longer-range weapons to hit Russian territory would mean that Russia and NATO are at war. GorakhaPatra
• [New] A coalition of eight hacktivist threat groups with pro-Russian and pro-Palestinian affiliations has announced a campaign targeting Belgium's internet infrastructure. SOCRadar Cyber Intelligence Inc.
• [New] Notable agreements include China and Russia's $245 billion trade in yuan and rubles, and India's expanded rupee trade with Russia and the UAE, all aimed at reducing conversion risk and diminishing the dollar's role. EconoWit
• [New] Many emerging nations, including BRICS members, aim to reduce reliance on the dollar due to risks like U.S. sanctions and its weaponization, exemplified by measures against Russia and Iran. EconoWit
• [New] The increasing trend of de-dollarization, with nations like Russia, China, and India seeking to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar, signifies a long-term strategic shift that could alter global financial architecture. FinancialContent
• [New] If talks collapse, Russia's cod sector could face shortages and a sharp rise in prices. SeafoodNews
• [New] The situation for cod in Russia could worsen quickly if Moscow and Oslo fail to reach an agreement on Barents Sea cod quotas. SeafoodNews
• [New] If sanctions result in a large reduction in oil purchases from Russia, it could cause a steeper drop in production than we are forecasting and put upward pressure on oil prices. EIA - Energy Information Administration
• [New] We assume sanctions on Russia will primarily increase the costs and risks of shipping Russia's oil, which we expect will lower the prices Russian oil producers receive. EIA - Energy Information Administration

Last updated: 22 November 2025