Global Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

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WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] European funding for Ukraine, though often delayed, is described as a tsunami overwhelming Russia, while China's support is limited to weapons technology and the promise of future gas purchases-real financial relief for Moscow will not arrive before 2030. Grand Pinnacle Tribune
• [New] ISW continues to assess that any future ceasefire or long-term pause in combat in Ukraine would free up Russian forces for rapid redeployment to Russia's eastern border with NATO, whereby Russia may be able to pose a significant threat to NATO earlier than many European officials currently expect. Critical Threats
• [New] Jager stated that Europe must prepare for further Russian escalation and cannot assume that Russia will not launch a conventional attack against NATO until 2029. Critical Threats
• [New] If Russia can attack Western satellites and disrupt undersea infrastructure at the same time, NATO digital flows will never be truly safe. The Highland County Press
• [New] By leveraging anti-satellite and cyber capabilities to hijack and disrupt satellites, Russia could weaponize communications to exert psychological warfare on civilians, as it has already done in Ukraine. The Highland County Press
• [New] Russia perceives U.S. and allied space technologies not only as enhancers of their conventional military capabilities, but also as existential risks comparable to nuclear weapons. The Highland County Press
• [New] Until now, NATO leaders have failed to recognize the dangers behind Russia's escalations in both the underwater and space domains. The Highland County Press
• [New] Russian military intelligence is likely conducting hybrid operations in Poland, Germany, and Lithuania to sow fear and discord within NATO states, following indications of a possible future Russian false-flag operation within Poland. Critical Threats
• [New] Turkic influence is on the rise across much of Eurasia, and the OTS is only going to grow in geopolitical significance and importance in the coming years, especially as Russian influence wanes and China focuses more on the Indo-Pacific. Hudson Institute
• [New] As Russia's sway diminishes in Armenia and Azerbaijan, it will continue to rely on its foothold in Georgia as its primary lever of influence in the South Caucasus. Hudson Institute
• [New] A wildcard scenario could even see Russian interference in Armenian politics to install a leader more aligned with Moscow's interests. Hudson Institute
• [New] Ukraine's CERT-UA has observed Russian hackers using AI to automate cyberattacks, generate malware, and exploit zero-click vulnerabilities, marking a shift toward Steal & Go operations and AI-assisted hybrid warfare coordinated with missile strikes. EU DisinfoLab
• [New] Russia and China combined by 2035 will maintain numerically more nuclear weapons than they have today and more than the United States will field for the foreseeable future. The Heritage Foundation
• [New] By 2027, the import of Russian liquefied natural gas will be completely prohibited - one year earlier than previously planned. World Socialist Web Site
• [New] The notion of annexation by force might be unlikely, but the potential outcomes for Moscow are severe, if not fundamental, challenges to Russia's strategic calculus in the Arctic. DebateUS
• [New] NATO simply cannot continue to ignore the massive and growing Russian military presence in the Arctic and keep up the forlorn hope of the Arctic being an area of low tension, of scientific cooperation, a peaceful wilderness. DebateUS
• [New] By the end of this year, Russia plans to operate a fleet of more than 20 nuclear and diesel-electric icebreakers - and will lead the world in carving through the Arctic. DebateUS
• [New] The U.S. has announced its plan to purchase 15 icebreakers to develop a route, and Russia has decided to invest 39 trillion won by 2035.
• [New] Germany commits €35 billion through 2030 to counter Russian inspector satellites shadowing Bundeswehr assets as Defence Minister Pistorius warns future conflicts will spill openly into orbit. Sirotin Intelligence
• [New] Investors are monitoring intensified attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure, which could reduce capacity by up to 40%. investing.com
• [New] The European Union is unveiling its Defence Readiness Roadmap 2030 - a major plan to boost investment and strengthen security, including a proposed drone wall to guard against potential Russian attacks. DW.COM
• [New] Russia's embrace of North Korea as a partner in proliferation upends decades of international efforts to contain nuclear threats in Asia and injects new urgency into debates about deterrence, sanctions, and great-power strategy. Second Line of Defense

Last updated: 01 November 2025