Our Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] ISW previously assessed that Russia's winter campaign aimed to degrade Ukraine's energy security, industrial capacity, and will to continue fighting against Russian aggression. Critical Threats
• [New] Ukraine's recent battlefield successes have disrupted Russian efforts to set conditions for their Spring-Summer 2026 offensive and will force Russian troops to establish stable defences before starting the fight to regain lost ground. Critical Threats
• [New] Russian forces will accumulate manpower under the concealment of fog and approach Ukrainian positions with cars and all-terrain vehicles before launching assaults when the fog lifts. Critical Threats
• [New] Russian forces are increasingly targeting railway infrastructure in Ukraine as part of their operational-level BAI campaign, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently warned. Critical Threats
• [New] Russian officials accused Ukraine of committing acts of terrorism and of trying to exploit tensions in the Middle East to escalate conflicts, and threatened that Russia could retaliate by shutting down all shipping routes to Ukraine. Critical Threats
• [New] The intensity of fighting in Kharkiv Oblast has decreased as Russian forces are regrouping for a possible Spring 2026 offensive and due to command and control (C2) disruptions from the blocking of Starlink. Critical Threats
• [New] The recent Ukrainian gains could force the Russian Eastern Grouping of Forces command to choose between prioritizing offensive efforts west of Hulyaipole or protecting Russian ground lines of communications toward Hulyaipole from Ukrainian counterattacks from the north. Critical Threats
• [New] Putin claimed that Russian energy companies have always been stable and stated that Russia will continue to supply oil and gas to its reliable partners in the Asia-Pacific region and in Eastern European countries such as Slovakia and Hungary. Critical Threats
• [New] European commitments will likely be strained by limited resources due to their ongoing support for Ukraine's defence against Russia. The Washington Institute
• [New] Russia could stop supplying natural gas to Europe if more profitable markets emerge during the current geopolitical tensions. CPA | The Credit Protection Association
• [New] As the ice retreats, new shipping lanes and energy reserves will open up, significantly increasing the likelihood of direct clashes between Russia and NATO over territory and resources in 2026. Daily Record
• [New] Russia's sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 export network is showing early signs of disruption after an explosion sank one of its shadow fleet carriers in the Mediterranean this week, forcing other tankers to halt or reroute and raising new questions about the security of a key shipping corridor. NextBigFuture.com
• [New] If negotiations fail, Russia will likely pursue a strategy of controlled escalation combined with deeper internal consolidation. Analyses & Alternatives
• [New] In strategic terms, uncertainty among Western allies is likely to encourage Russia to continue hostilities, in the hope that Transatlantic unity will erode faster than Russia's ability to maintain military pressure. Bloomsbury Intelligence & Security Institute (BISI)
• [New] Russia's nuclear arsenal includes roughly 1,500 non-strategic warheads, and perceived imbalances in nuclear capabilities vis-a-vis NATO could embolden the Kremlin to employ low-yield nuclear weapons - for which France lacks credible, flexible response options. Atlantic Council
• [New] By 2027, Russia plans to establish six multimodal logistics centers at key river ports including Omsk, the Amur region, Perm, Saratov, Samara and Dmitrov. New Eastern Europe
• [New] Over the next six years, Russia plans to invest around six billion US dollars in river transport infrastructure, including state subsidies for shipbuilding and incentives for the acquisition of large-tonnage vessels such as supertankers and LNG carriers. New Eastern Europe
• [New] Russian officials widely used the SVR's claim to make nuclear threats against Ukraine, the UK, and France. Critical Threats
• [New] Russia will be able to sustain its war in Ukraine throughout 2026 despite mounting economic and manpower pressures. UNITED24 Media
• [New] The breach of trust between Russia and Europe is profound and is unlikely to heal any time soon, and even if weakened, Moscow will remain for decades at least a strategic threat for the whole continent. FRS
• [New] With a rapidly melting Arctic, the window of opportunity for container ships north of Russia is widening year by year. commonspace.eu

Last updated: 14 March 2026