Global Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

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WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] An overt campaign of nuclear threats is expected, promoting the idea of Russia's alleged unprecedented military advantage, particularly through its nuclear triad. RBC-Ukraine
• [New] Russian propaganda in the first half of November is expected to focus on campaigns aimed at discrediting EU and US sanctions, as well as issuing new nuclear threats toward Western countries. RBC-Ukraine
• [New] Russian propaganda is expected to amplify claims about allegedly catastrophic consequences from repeated strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, predicting widespread heating outages, an energy collapse, freezing cities, and mass population displacement. RBC-Ukraine
• [New] If Kiev ramps up attacks to 4 or 5 a week (instead of the current 2 or 3), Russia could see its refining capacity slashed by a staggering 40%. Market Insights
• [New] Russian forces will continue their mission to seize the remainder of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts in accordance with the military's existing plans. Critical Threats
• [New] Russian crude is being offered at deeper and deeper discounts, but the risk is rising-just ask France, which recently seized a tanker. Market Insights
• [New] Continued European military assistance and European-financed American weapons sales to Ukraine will likely enable Ukrainian forces to defend Ukraine's Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast for several years, and possibly even reverse some Russian gains. Critical Threats
• [New] U.S. sanctions on the global operations of Russian oil heavyweights Rosneft and Lukoil enter into effect today, with some 48 million barrels of Rosneft and Lukoil crude on tankers that will now have to look for new destinations. investing.com
• [New] Some sources are speculating that lifting sanctions on Russia could enable 48 million barrels of Russian oil, currently stranded at sea, to reach their intended destinations. investing.com
• [New] Conflicts involving nuclear-armed states (the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel) in Europe, the Middle East and South Asia, alongside rising tensions in East Asia, could all too easily escalate to a nuclear confrontation. Electricity Info
• [New] Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy, through the lifting of sanctions and by inviting Russia to rejoin the G7 group of the world's most powerful countries - making it the G8 again. BBC News
• [New] Russia will continue to act in its national interests regardless of sanctions, signaling that the Kremlin will remain committed to its war effort in Ukraine even in the face of potential future economic pressures against Russia. Critical Threats
• [New] Propagandists are expected to push the narrative of theft of frozen Russian assets. RBC-Ukraine
• [New] The illegal Russian war of aggression against Ukraine will soon have been ongoing for four years. German Federal Foreign Office
• [New] Talks are expected to continue this weekend over the plan to use Russia's frozen assets to generate a €140bn loan for Ukraine. SKY
• [New] Coordinated hybrid campaigns led by Russia and China are increasingly targeting institutions, exploiting vulnerabilities, eroding trust, and reshaping narratives in Europe's democracies. gmfus
• [New] With doomsday nuclear weapons the last remnant of Russia's superpower status, President Vladimir Putin is stepping up threats to use them against Western powers aiding Ukraine. Forbes
• [New] A large-scale assault on NATO could be conceivable by 2029 if Russia's rearmament continues. Medium
• [New] A faster-than-expected run-off would narrow Russia's room for manoeuver in any new crisis. Medium
• [New] Russia is preparing to unleash a 'big war' on Europe in 2029 or 2030. Metro
• [New] Experts are not worried about an overnight calamity if there is no form of an agreed to cap, but it would be the first time in decades the US and Russia could deploy long-range nuclear weapons without restraint. CNN
• [New] US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin have spent weeks trading threats to restart nuclear tests, an escalation kicked off by Putin's boasts about tests of the Poseidon nuclear powered missile in late October. CNN
• [New] Russia will make about 70,000 long-range drones in 2025, including 30,000 Shahed-type drones. Critical Threats

Last updated: 29 November 2025