Global Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

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WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] The broader architecture is designed to counter threats from advanced missile systems, particularly from China and Russia, and would integrate with existing sensor and tracking layers. JD Supra
• [New] Significant U.S. diplomatic engagement will be required to mitigate the risk of conflict of Russia with Europe. JD Supra
• [New] Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, including disruptions at the critical CPC Black Sea export terminal that also handles Kazakh shipments, continue to pose near-term risks to supply, offsetting concerns about longer term oversupply. MUFG Research
• [New] Russia may try to renege on any future peace agreement it signs with Ukraine due to the Ukrainian government's alleged illegitimacy - as ISW has long warned. Critical Threats
• [New] Putin is very likely preparing to attempt to offset Russia's near-exhaustion of voluntary recruitment in 2026 by mobilizing elements of Russia's strategic reserve to sustain combat operations in Ukraine. Critical Threats
• [New] China - In a move that could reshape the world's money flows, leaders from China and Russia have signalled that the BRICS group is close to rolling out a new currency and payment system aimed at loosening the U.S. dollar's tight hold on global trade. Central News South Africa
• [New] A Russian GRU linked group caused a disruption in a European country's rail system via a cyber attack in 2025, and numerous phishing campaigns targeted EU government officials. DeepStrike
• [New] Russia will likely attempt to capitalize on Europe's assumption of greater security responsibilities, probing gaps and testing cohesion. Forbes
• [New] Strategic vulnerabilities emerged through China's control of critical minerals and Russia sanctions evasion. RealTime DemTrends
• [New] The joint China - Russia International Lunar Research Station proposes a joint scientific base that could serve as an alternative framework for lunar cooperation, in effect an alternative to the U.S.-led Artemis Accords. Belfer Center
• [New] China is helping Russia reconstitute its military, and in exchange, Russia is providing China with valuable military technology and assistance that could give it an edge over the United States in a conflict. The Atlantic
• [New] Russia is developing a new satellite meant to carry a nuclear weapon as an antisatellite capability, which, if detonated, could cause devastating consequences for the United States, the global economy, and the world in general. The Atlantic
• [New] The NSS presents Europe's relationship with Russia as profoundly strained in the context of the war in Ukraine, noting that many European states continue to regard Russia as an existential threat despite having far greater conventional military strength. ESCP International Politics Society
• [New] European countries, including Germany, France and the UK, have announced they will increase their defence spending and investments in military amid Russia's war in Ukraine. Al Jazeera
• [New] The US was not yet satisfied with Europe's defence spending amid Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine and said the US may stop participating in NATO by 2027 if European countries do not increase their investment. Al Jazeera
• [New] Macquarie Group anticipates a similar oversupply but projects WTI at $57 per barrel, factoring in geopolitical risks like Russian sanctions and Venezuelan uncertainties that could introduce volatility and prompt OPEC + cuts in the second half of the year. GeopoliticsUnplugged Substack
• [New] Russia escalates pressure on Europe amid the Ukraine conflict by increasing cyber activities against energy systems, probing offshore assets, and applying irregular tactics in the Black Sea and eastern Mediterranean to deter deeper EU support for Ukraine without risking direct NATO confrontation. GeopoliticsUnplugged Substack
• [New] Russia will take full control of Ukraine's Donbas region by force unless Ukrainian forces withdraw, something Kiev has flatly rejected. Al Jazeera
• [New] Russia's ability to supply critical minerals and expedite projects such as the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant, along with potential small modular reactors, could meaningfully support India's goal of achieving nuclear power goals. FirstPost
• [New] Russia's 20% inflation, gold dumps signal cracks; Tambov/Druzhba hits slash 2026 oils 50%, Finance Ministry frets. Tension and War Index (TWI)
• [New] Russia's invasions have created a 'new law of power' that will allow strong states to occupy weaker ones unless the international system is restored. Al Jazeera
• Combined fleet of at least 13 warships, bolstered by autonomous systems, will hunt Russian submarines and protect critical infrastructure in the North Atlantic as part of new agreement. GOV.UK
• Russia and India, long-time strategic partners, could work together to stabilise the whole world as global power diffuses. https://www.uniindia.com/~/russia-sees-world-turning-mu

Last updated: 13 December 2025