Global Scans · Turkey · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Uncertainties over Turkey's eventual political position abound. With EU decisions in doubt, recent crackdown on opposition parties causing concerns, and being embroiled in complex Middle East politics and fighting terrorism on its borders and internally, which way will she swing?

• [New] Instability in Iran could strengthen Kurdish nationalist movements, potentially leading to the emergence of an autonomous Kurdish entity near Turkey's southern border. RestProperty
• [New] If a revolution occurs, Turkey's role as a key bridge between the West and the Middle East could disappear. RestProperty
• [New] Turkey continues to maintain its strategic goal of full membership in the European Union and expects Brussels to remove existing obstacles on the path of European integration. RestProperty
• [New] The goal of building a nationally designed submarine and a nuclear-powered submarine under the ongoing National Submarine Project and NUKDEN was part of Turkey's plan to increase deterrence against regional threats in the eastern Mediterranean and surrounding seas and to become a global power. Turkish Minute
• [New] The growing hostility between Turkey and Israel introduces an additional layer of risk, because both nations operate militarily within overlapping regions such as Syria. Armstrong Economics
• [New] As a Eurasian country, Turkey could provide suitable energy transits to the world, bypassing the Hormuz volatility. New Eastern Outlook
• [New] If Turkish public opinion and government become convinced that Iran poses a direct threat to their territorial integrity, Ankara might be compelled to cooperate more closely with the anti-Iran coalition. Modern Diplomacy
• [New] If Israel can convince Baku of an Iranian threat by designing operations in Azerbaijani territory (especially Nakhchivan, which borders both Turkey and Iran), it could then use Azerbaijan's military capabilities to occupy Iran along its northwestern borders. Modern Diplomacy
• [New] Any shifts in rhetoric from Putin or Zelenskyy could matter, particularly if mediators from Turkey or Saudi Arabia enter negotiations. Crypto Briefing
• [New] A: S&P forecasts average CPI inflation of 29.3% in Turkey for 2026, up from its previous forecast of 23.4% before global geopolitical tensions. Property Turkey
• [New] A: S&P currently forecasts 3.4% GDP growth in Turkey through 2026, after GDP growth of 3.6% in 2025 was recorded. Property Turkey
• [New] S&P's own forecast puts Turkey's nominal GDP at $1.66 trillion USD in 2026, rising to $2.23 trillion USD by 2029. Property Turkey
• [New] Turkey's nominal GDP is projected by S&P at $1.66 trillion USD in 2026 and above $2.2 trillion USD by 2029. Property Turkey
• [New] The IMF forecasts Turkey's 2026 growth at 3.4%. Property Turkey
• [New] Turkey's behaviour reflects an effort to maximize autonomy and pursue new opportunities without forfeiting the benefits it accrues from its existing ties. GIS Reports
• [New] Europe's decision to move against Turkey risks pushing Ankara further away from the Western sphere and toward alternative alliances, including Russia and China, thereby accelerating the fragmentation of the global order and weakening NATO cohesion at a time when it is already under strain. Armstrong Economics
• [New] Once geopolitical tensions ignite, they do not remain contained, and what we are now witnessing is the steady expansion of conflict lines as Turkey is being recast from a strategic NATO partner into a geopolitical threat by the very alliance it once helped anchor. Armstrong Economics
• [New] As the Iran war has spread, missiles and drones have been fired toward NATO member Turkey and a British military base on Cyprus, fueling speculation about what might prompt NATO to trigger its collective security guarantee and come to their rescue. 95.5 WSB
• [New] Turkey's central bank is expected to keep rates on hold at 37.0% for a second straight meeting. Brown Brothers Harriman
• [New] Dutch lender ING expects Turkey's central bank to hold interest rates steady in April and has raised its 2026 year-end inflation forecast to 27.5% from the previous 25.5%, pointing to mounting risks from energy costs and Iran war-driven geopolitical tensions. Turkiye Today
• [New] Turkey will continue to be one of the EBRD's largest markets. P.A. Turkey
• The European Parliament's Committee on Foreign Affairs warns that Turkey's EU accession process cannot move forward without democratic reforms, as shortcomings related to the rule of law and fundamental rights remain unaddressed. 2eu.brussels

Last updated: 04 May 2026