Global Scans · Turkey · Weekly Summary

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WHAT'S NEXT?: Uncertainties over Turkey's eventual political position abound. With EU decisions in doubt, recent crackdown on opposition parties causing concerns, and being embroiled in complex Middle East politics and fighting terrorism on its borders and internally, which way will she swing?

• [New] Germany will remain among the world's top ten steel-consuming regions together with China, India, United States, South Korea, Japan, Russia, Turkey, Mexico and Brazil. EUROMETAL
• [New] The foreign policies of various geopolitical swing states - including India, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Brazil - will help shape future geopolitical relations. MIT OpenCourseWare
• [New] Turkey will impose restrictions on the export of products from 54 different categories to Israel until a ceasefire is declared in Gaza. The Guardian
• [New] Turkey's presence could potentially contribute to establishing a form of balance, limiting Ethiopia's maneuvering space and slowing down its efforts to proceed with its maritime agreement with Somaliland. Addis Standard
• [New] Turkey will assist Somalia in bolstering its naval forces, enhancing maritime security capabilities, and advancing maritime resource development and blue economy initiatives. Addis Standard
• The US-Turkish ammunition collaboration project will see heavy Turkish investment in American shell manufacturing, and the Turkish company Rekon will, by 2025, have built three new production lines in Texas, manufacturing about 30% of all 155 mm artillery shells produced in the United States. Kyiv Post
• As Ankara cannot control how its drones are used by countries that buy them, Turkey's policy of exporting drones could damage its international reputation, as the country at worst accrues blame, or at best creates bad optics, for distributing weaponry that so easily lends itself to war crimes. Defence Industry
• Social commerce industry in Turkey is expected to grow by 35.4% on annual basis to reach US$ 3.82 billion in 2024. Yahoo Finance
• One of Turkey's mid-sized Mediterranean oil terminals - the Dortyol terminal - will no longer accept Russian imports after receiving record volumes last year, amid an increase in sanctions pressure by the United States. investing.com
• Turkey and Somalia signed a bilateral maritime agreement in February that authorized Turkey to build, train, and equip the Somali navy and deploy ships to combat illegal activity and remove any external violations or threats to Somalia's coast. Critical Threats
• International organizations like the IMF and OECD are optimistic about Turkey's economy, estimating that Turkey will be the 9th largest economy by 2030 and 5th largest by 2060. Property Turkey
• The Central Bank of Turkey voiced its commitment to upholding a stringent policy approach until inflation drops to target levels, with a year-end inflation projection of 36% and a long-term target of 9% by the year 2026. Property Turkey
• After spending years supporting opposite sides of the Libyan civil war, Turkey and Egypt could start working together to ensure Libya's stability, security, and economic progress. Carnegie Europe
• Some Chinese banks and Turkish lenders are understood to have reacted to US threats in December to cut off access to foreign banks doing business with companies that support Russia's defence industry. The Guardian
• Egypt, the UAE, Turkey, Israel, and other countries are expected to make major investments in infrastructure projects, such as high-speed rail, new road networks, and massive housing projects. Al Jazeera Centre for Studies
• If the U.S. decides to withdraw from Syria without coordinating with Turkey and instead withdraws after making a deal with Damascus or continues to stay in Syria, Turkish-American relations will suffer. The American Conservative
• Although Erdogan's statements are frequently intended for domestic consumption, Turkey's president and high-ranking officials in Ankara seem gravely concerned about U.S.-UK military action in the Red Sea worsening regional tensions that could risk bringing NATO into a much larger conflict. Responsible Statecraft
• Turkey could lead naval operations in the international waters in the Black Sea, further out from its coastline, with its TCG Anadolu assault ship without a NATO mandate. Atlantic Council
• As Europeans are not keen on purchasing Russian gas, Turkey could reserve its Russian imports for domestic consumption and export what is left of its domestic extraction. Carnegie Europe
• Turkey will face tough choices as Western sanctions on Russia because of the war in Ukraine restrict the Kremlin's options for energy exports and Europe progressively moves away from hydrocarbon consumption and imports. Carnegie Europe
• Turkey considers the Development Road an opportunity to enhance trade with the Gulf region and the Middle East. Carnegie Middle East Center

Last updated: 15 April 2024