Global Scans · Turkey · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Uncertainties over Turkey's eventual political position abound. With EU decisions in doubt, recent crackdown on opposition parties causing concerns, and being embroiled in complex Middle East politics and fighting terrorism on its borders and internally, which way will she swing?

• [New] In Turkey, inflation is officially 32% (55% according to independent organization ENAG), with growing working-class unrest a major threat to the Erdogan government. World Socialist Web Site
• [New] An SWP Commentary highlighted that the conflict over the Strait of Hormuz following the US-Israel war against Iran is reshaping trade and energy routes between Europe and Asia, giving Turkey the opportunity to position itself as a key transit hub between East and West. PubAffairs Bruxelles
• [New] Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Thailand, and Turkey all carry significant potential, provided they can navigate current geopolitical headwinds and build out the necessary infrastructure. AgFunderNews
• [New] Political elites see the shift towards a multi ­ polar world order as providing a strategic opportunity to expand Turkey's foreign-policy room for manoeuver. Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP)
• [New] Turkey could dedicate part of its DCA aircraft for the European nuclear enterprise. Atlantic Council
• [New] Turkey's Interior Ministry has flagged the incel phenomenon, which refers to individuals who identify as involuntarily celibate, as an emerging online risk for children and young people. Counter Extremism Project
• [New] For exports, the largest changes are expected for Australia (-1.2 million bales to 4.5 million), India (+500,000 bales to 1.5 million), Brazil (+300,000 bales to 15.0 million), the U.S. (+300,000 bales to 12.3 million), and Turkey (-300,000 bales to 600,000). WWD
• [New] The largest year-over-year changes in imports are expected for India (-2.2 million bales to 2.0 million), Pakistan (+500,000 bales to 5.3 million), China (+400,000 bales to 7.0 million), Vietnam (+400,000 bales to 8.0 million), and Turkey (+300,000 bales to 4.8 million). WWD
• [New] Turkey, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are developing together a so-called CubeSat scientific satellite to be launched in 2027. Euronews
• [New] We forecast that inflation will be 26% by the end of 2026. / Turkey NAMPA
• [New] Turkey's central bank on Thursday raised its end-2026 inflation target to 24% from 16%, acknowledging that inflation is no longer expected to fall as quickly as planned after energy and food price shocks from the war involving the United States, Israel and Iran. Turkish Minute
• [New] A European architecture that does not include Turkey in its rightful place will remain incomplete and vulnerable in managing crises. Turkish Minute
• [New] Turkey was lacking EU accession momentum due to democratic backsliding while identifying a window of opportunity for closer sectoral cooperation on foreign and security policy. Turkish Minute
• [New] The Turkish economy would expand by 3.7% in 2026 and 4.4% in 2027. hurriyetdailynews.com
• [New] A more stable Syria could facilitate refugee returns and unlock economic prospects reminiscent of Turkey's ties with Iraqi Kurdistan, even though doubts persist about Ankara's material capabilities to outcompete Gulf monarchies in shaping Syria's reconstruction. CIDOB
• [New] Turkey seems to have the clearest idea about which actors will play a central role in a multipolar world order - namely, the US, China and Russia. Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP)
• [New] As NATO's second-largest military, Turkey's operational experience, forward presence, and ability to project power across adjacent regions contribute to the broader credibility of NATO's deterrence posture. Atlantic Council
• [New] In the context of Russia's war against Ukraine, instability in the Middle East, and evolving security risks in the Black Sea region, Turkey functions as a critical geopolitical hub linking multiple domains of deterrence. Atlantic Council
• [New] Another 125,000 jobs could disappear by 2035 without major competitiveness reforms. / Turkey LinkedIn
• [New] Kazakhstan is working jointly with Uzbekistan, Turkey and Azerbaijan on the development of the CubeSat scientific satellite, scheduled for launch in 2027. The Astana Times
• [New] The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey raised its year-end inflation forecast for 2026 to 26% from 18% in its second inflation report, citing mounting price pressures triggered by the Iran war and disruptions tied to energy markets around the Strait of Hormuz. Turkiye Today
• [New] Governor Fatih Karahan announced interim targets of 24% (2026), 15% (2027), and 9% (2028), with a tight monetary stance to last longer than previously expected. / Turkey Yeni Safak
• [New] Ankara wants to advance relations with the EU on a win-win basis based on mutual obligations and a full membership perspective, adding that Turkey expects the same sincere will from Brussels. Turkish Minute

Last updated: 01 June 2026