Global Scans · Turkey · Weekly Summary

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WHAT'S NEXT?: Uncertainties over Turkey's eventual political position abound. With EU decisions in doubt, recent crackdown on opposition parties causing concerns, and being embroiled in complex Middle East politics and fighting terrorism on its borders and internally, which way will she swing?

• [New] In the Black Sea, Vodafone Group and Vodafone Ukraine have partnered with Xtera on the Kardesa, a €116m ($136m) cable system that will connect Bulgaria, Georgia, Turkey, and Ukraine with the first cable landing planned in Bulgaria in 2027. Verdict
• [New] Turkey supplies are expected to remain constrained through the first half of 2026. Food Dive
• [New] Turkey plans to establish a combat aerial drone assembly facility in Pakistan, enhancing bilateral defence cooperation through technology transfer and joint production. GeopoliticsUnplugged Substack
• [New] The outcomes of Turkey's policies and its relationships with the West, alongside Russia's future maneuvering, will greatly shape the Black Sea's security landscape moving forward. Maritime Fairtrade
• [New] Macron signalled Turkey could play a naval role, given its position on the Black Sea. The Independent
• [New] Had Turkey's relations with the West been more positive in recent years, it might have leveraged friend-shoring or near-shoring policies to attract investments in high-technology manufacturing. Belfer Center
• [New] Another complicating factor is the EU's green transition, which will likely reduce future need for fossil fuels, making it necessary for Turkey to accelerate its own energy transition, possibly with European investments. Belfer Center
• [New] The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank committed $5 billion to support Turkey's climate resilience and sustainable development projects from 2025 to 2027. Belfer Center
• [New] An increasingly politicised judiciary in Turkey could be a factor that prevents the country achieving long-held strategic aims. The National
• [New] If Australia, Turkey and the Pacific are able to combine their diplomatic assets, they might be able to have a bigger impact on climate diplomacy than on their own. Devpolicy Blog from the Development Policy Centre
• [New] Luckily, Turkey, Australia and the Pacific Island countries did reach agreement that a pre-COP meeting will to take place in the Pacific, enabling a pathway for Pacific priorities to remain at the center of the climate talks. Devpolicy Blog from the Development Policy Centre
• [New] Delays for oil tankers passing through the Turkish Straits have climbed to about 12 days for a round trip to the Black Sea, up from about seven days last week, as winter storms, heightened security risks and shorter daylight hours snarl traffic. MarineLink
• [New] Turkey will no longer consider the Syrian Democratic Forces to be a terrorist organization if the SDF hands over key resources and infrastructure to the Syrian government as part of its integration into the Syrian state. Critical Threats
• In 2025, at least six Chinese car manufacturers have explored opportunities to establish operations in Turkey. Caliber.az
• Turkey's defence industry is gaining strategic importance for Europe amid rising security threats from Russia. DW.COM
• More recently, Turkey sees an opportunity in the Middle Corridor, a transport route connecting Turkey to China through the Caucasus, the Caspian Sea, and Central Asia. Belfer Center
• Turkey's position in the United States-China technology competition will largely depend on whether it deepens its technology-related cooperation with European states. Belfer Center
• Acquisition of S-400 Defence System: Despite strong objections and sanctions from NATO allies, Turkey's acquisition of the S-400 air defence system from Russia can be seen as a direct manifestation of the Red Book, which likely defines Western allies as threats and Russia as a partner. KFuture.Media
• The profound changes in threat perception in the Red Book are directly connected to the emergence of major shifts in Turkey's foreign policy direction. KFuture.Media
• Presenting non-traditional security threats such as cyberwarfare and climate change is a notable innovation in Turkish strategic thinking. KFuture.Media
• As long as the European Union continues to link its relations with Turkey to the Cyprus issue, it cannot reasonably be expected to pursue a fair, balanced, and impartial approach toward the Turkish Cypriot side. Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus - Ministry of Forei
• Chinese brands could account for up to 6% of European production by 2028 or about 860,000 vehicles, including BYD plants in Hungary, Turkey, and maybe Spain too. Forbes

Last updated: 15 December 2025