Space

A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

4 July 2025
Introduction
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Contents
User Guide
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Sources
RSS Feeds
Twitter Searches
Web Searches
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
By the end of this decade, the U.S. and its allies could face a gap in American presence in LEO amidst a continued Chinese interest in strategic lunar geography - a scenario with implications not only for science and exploration but also for U.S. leadership and the global space economy. SpaceNews
China has launched a probe to collect samples from the far side of the moon in a world first, part of its goal to land a human on the lunar surface by 2030. The Guardian
China has launched a probe to collect samples from the far side of the moon - in a world first - as part of its goal to land a human on the lunar surface by 2030. The Guardian
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
  • China and Russia's deepening space partnership, exemplified by their plans for the International Lunar Research Station by 2025 and a lunar nuclear power plant by 2033-2035, signals a strategic alignment that challenges U.S. dominance (RUSI Commentary). SSBCrack News
  • Resource mining on the moon or asteroids could reduce pressure on Earth's ecosystems, though it raises ethical questions. Cosmoterra
  • While U.S. law and the growing bloc of Artemis Accords signatories provide a strong and clear operational framework, the lack of a binding global consensus on resource ownership represents a significant long-term geopolitical risk. New Space Economy
Weaknesses
  • Of greatest concern is that approximately 10% of the lunar debris could make its way towards Earth within days after impact. The Overspill: when there's more that I want to say
  • Any significant environmental incident or geopolitical conflict arising from its activities could trigger a global backlash, potentially leading to a more restrictive, treaty-based regulatory regime that could stall the development of the lunar economy for decades. New Space Economy
  • SLC-37 will relieve pressure on LC39A, support Artemis lunar missions, enable higher test flight rates, and help build in-space refueling infrastructure. Elon Buzz
Opportunities
  • India will launch the Chandrayaan-4 mission in 2027 to bring back moon rock samples to Earth. IBPS Guide
  • India will launch the Chandrayaan-4 mission in 2027 to bring back moon rock samples to Earth. IBPS Guide
  • Turkey's ambitious space program includes plans to achieve the first contact with the Moon by 2026, with the spacecraft currently being designed and produced by TUBITAK Space. Turkiye Today
Threats
  • Human exploration of the moon and eventually other planets could result in space pollution, through the introduction of terrestrial substances onto celestial bodies which may harm any existing indigenous life forms. Brill
  • Moon-orbiting missions like NASA's planned Lunar Gateway could be vulnerable. ZME Science
  • Moon-based helium-3 mining could fuel fusion reactors and solve Earth's energy crisis permanently. Solutions24h
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
S-Curve

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

Weak
Mars, moon, astronaut, lunar, lander, commercial
Emerging
artificial intelligence, 4G, blockchain, EV, crypto, moon
Maturing
moon, lunar, astronaut, Mars, commercial, agency
Declining
moon, company, lunar, Mars, astronaut, budget
Sentiment
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
Annual emissions are computed based on the world diet projections in Fig. 2, and transition to alternatives to ASF or plant-only diet taking off in 2025 and targeting 90% by 2050. Nature
We find that compared to the business-as-usual scenario in which most global diets converge toward a Western diet by 2050, a substantial reduction in cumulative food sector GHG emissions can be achieved with shifts to alternatives to ASF or a plant-only diet. Nature
PEST
Political
  • Musk's advocacy to reach the Red Planet has continued despite increasing intentions by China to become only the second country to put humans on the Moon by 2030. Yahoo News
  • In a decade or two when the Artemis Program exists only in the rear-view mirror or history, it could finally become the global governance framework for all nations exploring and exploiting space beyond Earth orbit. Room The Space Journal of Asgardia
  • The Lunar New Year, potential U.S. port disruptions, and new regulatory frameworks are among the key factors influencing supply chains for businesses in Australia and New Zealand. Seabridge Global Logistics
Economic
  • Analysts at ING are expecting a modest uptick in the year-on-year number to around 0.4% YoY, as we expect food inflation to see an uptick from the Lunar New Year effect, but non-food inflation is likely to remain weak as price competition remains cutthroat. / China investing.com
  • A report by NASA's Office of Inspector General in August found quality issues with Boeing's work on the Exploration Upper Stage, a more powerful upper stage planned for the Block 1 B version of SLS that will begin service on Artemis 4. SpaceNews
  • With companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin paving the way for space tourism, there will be a need for professionals who understand the logistics and management of space travel experiences. Mintly
Social
  • The best viewing location will be Canada, where up to 93% of the Sun will be covered by the Moon, making it the most dramatic region for observers. International Star Registry - Name a Star
  • With the Artemis 2 mission scheduled for 2026, having humans aboard spacecraft in cislunar space for the first time in 53 years will require infrastructure and the means to protect it. SpaceNews
  • Whilst the Wolf Amendment remains, it is unlikely in the short term that China will join and it may thus prevent the Artemis Accords from being adopted as a global framework for responsible behaviours in space. Room The Space Journal of Asgardia
Technological
  • The lunar occultation of Mars will be visible from parts of Canada, most of Scandinavia and Russia, and parts of Asia. Live Science
  • Skywatchers in northern latitudes might even be able to catch a lunar occultation, when the moon appears to swallow a planet from the sky. Live Science
  • If, for instance, microbes can thrive in a lake buried beneath Earth's south polar ice cap, maybe similar organisms could exist in glancingly similar extraterrestrial environments, such as the mysterious ice-covered ocean of Jupiter's moon Europa or water-logged regions of Mars's subsurface. Scientific American
Financial Impact
The global space economy, including lunar pursuits, is expected to reach $1 trillion by 2030, with significant contributions from private sector investments. Science Magazine
The cumulative value of the lunar economy could reach approximately $170 billion by 2040. New Space Economy
Launch services account for $32 billion, growing at 15.8% annually, while space tourism emerges as a nascent but promising sector, projected to reach $1.7 billion by 2025. Medium
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Organizations
Sectors
Cities
Countries
People
Scenarios
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
By the end of this decade, the U.S. and its allies could face a gap in American presence in LEO amidst a continued Chinese interest in strategic lunar geography - a scenario with implications not only for science and exploration but also for U.S. leadership and the global space economy. SpaceNews
The robotic Chang' e 5 returned lunar samples back to Earth in 2020 and Chang' e 6, which launches in May 2024, will bring back the first samples from the Moon's far side. BBC
NASA's Artemis II mission, a warmup for a lunar landing planned for 2025, will mark the first time astronauts have gone beyond low Earth orbit since the Apollo 17 mission, in 1972. IEEE Spectrum
Warnings
Changing proportion of published forecasts
New observations of the city killer asteroid once thought to be on a collision course with the Earth indicate it will miss the planet but strike the Moon and pose potential danger to satellites. The Independent
Though the danger to Earth has now dropped dramatically, there's still a small possibility it could strike the Moon, potentially causing debris that threatens satellites and human space activity. SciTechDaily
Solutions
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
The Moon could become humanity's first off-world industrial base, while Mars might require decades of preparation before any serious resource extraction becomes possible. Climate Cosmos
Astronomers have discovered two white dwarf stars just 150 light-years away on a collision course that will end in a massive Type 1 a supernova-set to outshine the Moon in Earth's night sky. Apple Podcasts
The Moonlight project will provide the first off-planet commercial telecommunications network, supporting lunar communication and navigation services. Royal Aeronautical Society
Key topics
Extremes
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
NASA plans to get humans back on the Moon within this decade, so designing systems that make a sustained human presence possible on our cold, atmosphere - less satellite are of utmost importance. Gizmodo
As the first crewed mission of the Artemis program, Artemis II will test and validate the technologies required for future lunar landings and, ultimately, human exploration of Mars. Copernical.com
For a very long time to come, the future overflowing numbers of Earth-humans will not be able to flee from Earth and settle on Mars, for example - although in a few years' time, efforts will begin to use extremely primitive rocket technology to reach the moon. CR 908: Deliberate Poisoning and the Alleged Rebirth "
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
In the coming year, Elon Musk's SpaceX plans to continue testing its Starship rocket, which is designed to deliver cargo and people to near-Earth orbits, as well as to the Moon and Mars. Hitecher
With the return to the Moon already started with robotics spacecraft and with humans in the next few years, planning for exploration beyond LEO is becoming finally a reality, while it is expected that the world's space agencies will leave much of the work in LEO to private organizations. IAA - The International Academy of Astronautics
Questions
Can?
Can the moon's phases affect human behaviour? archyde
How Accurately Can Lunar Symbolism Predict Individual Future Changes? Insightful Spiritual
How can a company protect its investment in a lunar mine if it must be freely accessible by all? Space Daily
How?
How Would an Impact Affect the Moon? Discover Magazine
How long will ispace's Resilience last on the moon? Space
How Might Atmospheric or Environmental Factors Affect the New Moon's Energy Perception? Spirituality Essence
Who?
Exploration of new frontiers will produce new ways of imagining, new challenges, new technologies that can be of tremendous utility, says Grayling, who moderated a fireside chat Monday that was part of Northeastern's Thinking the Future series and recently published a book, Who Owns the Moon? phys.org
Who is in the best position to build long-term industrialization on the moon? Politico
Who will be most affected by the new moon? My Imperfect Life
What?
Where is the Moon's water, and what form is it in? NASA Science
What Does China Need the Moon For? BUSINESS EXPERT NEWS
What does the Scorpio influence mean for the full moon? Spiritual With Liza
When?
What happens when there's a private space mishap that strands paying passengers in orbit or on the moon? SpaceNews
When will 100 metric tons of clean, processed, water extracted at the lunar poles and positioned where we want it, cost less than a few tens of millions of dollars? Space
How will geopolitical tensions between China and the U.S. play out when it comes to mining the Moon? Satellite Today
Will?
Will an international space insurance risk pool be an answer to the increasing financial risks connected with mega satellite constellations, the growth in space tourism, the risks relating to non-astronauts, space debris and third party liability? Orbital Today
Where will ispace's lander touch down on the moon? Space
What other groundbreaking technologies will emerge as we strive to make lunar habitation a reality? Sustainability Times
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